Uwe Ulbrich on "Why we need more satellites!"The Contribution of Mr Uwe Ulbrich to a workshop on satellites and their use in meteorology held at Walberberg, November 2000 In the old monastery at Walberberg, halfway between the cities of Cologne and Bonn, monks gathered in order to be close to the Creator. 500 years later, members from science and business community met here to go soaring into higher spheres as well. Reading the attendance list was like taking a glance at the “Who is Who“ of weather and climate. The question was: what should a modern satellite system do / be capable of doing? This brainstorming seemed highly necessary, because a number of the gains and advantages of new technology are still unused, with scientific work more often on the side of jeopardy than not. Data sets are riddled by gigantic gaps of time and space, with the operational system still indebted to tradition. The forecast of phenomena like volcano activities or earthquakes are still “terra incognita”. Data from space cannot be done without, but the dilemma is hard to solve. For single users, satellites have become too expensive. Multinational organizations distribute the financial burden but, in terms of power and mobility, act more like aircraft carriers. The unproductivity is furthermore enhanced by the stop-and-go of scientific programs due to changing political priorities. Meteosat-7 is still a model of the first generation. The second generation satellite will be launched in 2002 and will operate in orbit until the year 2012. It is still unclear if there will be a follow-up satellite by 2009. This concept was born in the late 80s and early 90s. However, it doesn‘t take into account the dramatic developments in the field of technology of the last 20 years. The EUMETSAT Polar System has bit more time, because the launch of METOP-1 the first of three satellites, will not take place before 2005. But problems are similar:. the development of next generation satellites tries to realize the needs and wishes of users. 25 years ago, the amount of data was overwhelming, computers were chronically slow. Meanwhile, the situation has changed – systems are better now, but we need new data. Mesoscalic phenomena can be simulated by high resolution models, but the input still has to be transformed into parameters and cannot be assembled by observations/measurements. The nowcasters and numerical forecasters are united in these kinds of problems they share with most of their colleagues, for it is exactly the mesoscalic systems that cause those phenomena that make us rack our brains at the daily forecasts and warnings. Squall lines, hail, heavy rain, small-range-storms and tornadoes. What do we expect from continuous cosmic observation? We need vertical profiles of temperature and humidity in order to recognize zones of instability, we need data of air pressure variation/changes with a resolution of 5 km every 10 to 30 minutes, the development of turbulence and icing in clouds, as well as CAT, temperature and moisture on the surface. Seasonal and ocean process forecast needs all of this and more. Information from within the oceans are very rare and unsuitable for modeling. But it is precisely in these fields of work that we can get an idea of the fantastic possibilities at hand It has become possible, by a new combination of measurements, observations and models, to forecast climatic anomalies that are due to El Nino Last not least, observation and forecasting of environmental pollution due to anthropogenic activity, volcanic activity and biomass burning as well as smog are at the center of attention. To me, the IABM represents an important link between science, technology and the public. Our meteorologists distribute information, explain phenomena, offer forecasts and warnings and create publicity. It is still a bridge from the ivory tower down to earth. This meeting is one step more to make this bridge a bit wider.
|